All figures below assume optimal strategy on a full-pay DDB 9/6 machine. Deviating from optimal play reduces the frequency of premium hands and lowers your effective return.
Hand frequency table
Frequencies are expressed as approximately 1 in every N hands played. The RTP contribution shows what percentage of the 98.98% total return comes from each hand category.
| Hand | Approx. frequency | Payout (max bet) | RTP contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royal Flush | 1 in ~40,800 | 800× | ~1.96% |
| Straight Flush | 1 in ~9,150 | 50× | ~0.55% |
| Four Aces + 2/3/4 kicker | 1 in ~16,200 | 400× | ~2.47% |
| Four 2s/3s/4s + kicker | 1 in ~3,900 | 160× | ~4.10% |
| Four Aces | 1 in ~4,900 | 160× | ~3.27% |
| Four 2s, 3s, or 4s | 1 in ~1,300 | 80× | ~6.15% |
| Four 5s through Kings | 1 in ~430 | 50× | ~11.63% |
| Full House | 1 in ~87 | 9× | ~10.34% |
| Flush | 1 in ~91 | 6× | ~6.59% |
| Straight | 1 in ~89 | 4× | ~4.49% |
| Three of a Kind | 1 in ~13 | 3× | ~22.64% |
| Two Pair | 1 in ~8 | 1× | ~12.77% |
| Jacks or Better (pair) | 1 in ~5 | 1× | ~21.27% |
| No winning hand | ~55% of hands | 0× | 0% |
Figures are approximate and based on optimal play simulations. Actual results over any finite session will vary significantly due to variance.
What the numbers mean for your session
The Royal Flush problem
The Royal Flush contributes nearly 2% of the total RTP, but occurs only once every ~40,800 hands. At 500 hands per hour, you'd expect a Royal roughly once every 80 hours of play. In any given session, you're statistically unlikely to hit one. That's exactly why the game has high variance.
This is also why always playing maximum coins is non-negotiable. The Royal Flush pays 250× at 1–4 coins but 800× at max bet (5 coins). Skipping max bet permanently reduces your effective return by roughly 1.4 percentage points.
Where most of your return actually comes from
Three of a Kind (22.6%), Jacks or Better (21.3%), and Full House / Four of a Kind categories together account for the vast majority of money returned to players. These are the bread-and-butter hands, frequent enough to sustain your bankroll between the rare premium payouts.
The quad kicker premium in DDB
Notice that Four 2s/3s/4s with a kicker and Four Aces with a kicker together contribute over 6.5% of total return — but each occurs only once every 3,900–16,200 hands. These infrequent, massive payouts are what define DDB's high-variance character. A player who correctly holds kickers when appropriate captures that full return; one who doesn't leaves significant EV on the table.
Variance note: Even with a 98.98% long-run return, short-session results are dominated by luck. Expect to lose your entire session bankroll on some trips and win significantly on others. The math only guarantees the long-run outcome across hundreds of thousands of hands.
How DDB probabilities compare to Jacks or Better
In standard Jacks or Better 9/6, the return is 99.54%, higher than DDB 9/6. The difference comes from DDB's trade-offs: Two Pair is reduced from 2× to 1×, which is offset by the premium quad bonuses. This means:
- Two Pair (occurring ~1 in 8 hands) pays half as much in DDB, a significant drag on return.
- Premium quad hands are much rarer than Two Pair, so you need them to hit on schedule over thousands of hands to realize the full return.
- DDB is a higher-variance game than JoB: bigger swings, bigger wins, but a slightly lower expected return.
Using the analyzer to study probabilities
The Video Poker Analyzer calculates the exact EV for every possible hold on any 5-card hand. This is how you internalize the probabilities: deal a hand, guess the optimal hold, then compare to the analyzer's result. Over time, the frequency table above becomes intuitive. You'll recognize which holds are chasing a one-in-40,000 Royal and which are the high-EV, high-frequency plays.
For deeper context on how to use these probabilities in actual decisions, see the DDB 9/6 Strategy Guide. For a comparison of how different pay tables affect these odds, see Pay Table Comparison.